It was an ordinary day. Making sure I have my snow boots ready and in waiting for what we are expected to get this coming winter in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. My September 1st Lancaster newspaper reported that The Old Farmer's Almanac has been issuing weather predictions since 1792, and the forecast for the 2023-24 winter is calling for plenty of snow! Yep...forget those 90+ degree days we have been getting the past couple of weeks! And, I won't have to shovel it for the first time in my life after moving to Woodcrest Villa Retirement Community. Now...I do realize that I may have to clear a just a bit of snow from my one-car length driveway, but that's a piece of cake in comparison to the huge driveway and rear porch and walkways where we moved from this past year and the long walkway and parking spaces at our first house in the Grandview Heights area. Most areas of the United States that typically see snow should be prepared for crisp temperatures and oodles of fluffy white throughout the season according to the Almanac. I am told to keep a shovel at the ready, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, where snow will begin arriving in November with storms, showers and flurries continuing through the start of spring. Well...let it snow...let it snow...let it snow...as the old song goes! Now, this is according to the Old Farmer's Almanac which is not to be confused with the regular Farmer's Almanac, which is basically the same type of publication, despite the two being completely separate, competing entities. The Farmers's Almanac is calling for a colder, snowier winter than we saw last year, and gets pretty specific in its winter weather advisory, predicting an East Coast storm the second week of February and another the first week of March. The real question is: How accurate are these almanac weather predictions, anyway? Both almanacs claim an accuracy rate between 80% and 95% in their weather forecasts. A University of Illinois study found that the Farmer's Almanac was roughly 52% accurate in its forecasts. Hey...long-range forecasting is pretty accurate up to a week in advance, according to data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. An eight-day forecast has about an 80% chance of being accurate. Once forecasting gets out beyond 10 days, the accuracy rate drops closer to 50%. So, how do the almanac folks know about the weather so far in advance? Like right now!! Well, if scientific peer review is what you're after, you won't find it in any book or prediction. Neither publishers have revealed how their weather forecasts are modeled. If you do wish to do your own predictions...you can get the Old Farmer's Almanac at Almanac.com. For the Farmers Almanac see Farmers Almanac.com. And than go buy yourself a new snow shovel. If you happen to have a good wife and maybe a few children...buy a few extra shovels. And...if you live near me in Lancaster County, PA...well send me your telephone number in case the guys at Woodcrest Villa are in trouble and might need you to help me get out of my driveway and down the road. It was another extraordinary day in the life of an ordinary guy. PS - I couldn't find a specific amount of snow from anybody...but the snow shovel sellers are predicting waste-level amounts!! Maybe I should have a shovel for my wife as well as myself. And, I have to figure how to train my two cats how to push the white stuff with their paws!! Or perhaps just pee on it! Post me a note here if you can let me know how to do that! (and I don't mean how to pee in it!) It was another extraordinary day in the life of an ordinary guy.
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