Drought, Fires Could Push Up Coffee Prices Story

It was an ordinary day.  And just in case you haven't read the story in your newspaper, here is the story about drought and fires pushing up coffee prices.  The story takes place in Caconde, Brazil.  Silvio Almeida's coffee plantation sits at an ideal altitude on a Brazilian hillside, where clay-rich soil does well at retaining moisture from rainfall and a nearby reservoir.  Lately, though, water is scarce on Almeida's modest farm in Caconde, a town in one of Sao Paulo state's key growing regions.  He can't get his coffee to grow the way it should.  In Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, Almeida and other farmers are grappling with the nation's worst drought in more than seven decades and above-average temperatures.  Almeida expected to harvest 120 sacks of coffee beans this season, but instead managed just 100.  "Given the conditions here, the 2025 crop is already affected," he told The Associated Press, pointing to a part of his plantation where flower buds died before blooming.  "I won't say it's doomed, because with God anything is possible.  But, based on the situation, it's already compromised."  Brazil's harvest season that ends this month was virtually flat from last year, and exports surged, but the ongoing drought is already complicating the start of the 2025-26 season, according to a report Monday by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics at the University of Sao Paulo's agribusiness school.  At the same time, Vietnam, the world's second-biggest coffee producer, is experiencing heat and drought, affecting its crops.  Potential supply shortages in both countries have started driving up global coffee prices, according to the report.  In part, prices are rising because of higher demand, particularly in Asia.  But, weather is also driving increases.  Drought, frost and fire have damaged as much as one-fifth of arabica coffee producers' growing areas in Brazil, said Billy Roberts, a senior economist for food and beverage at Colorado-based CoBank.  It was another extraordinary day in the life of an ordinary guy.  

Coffee producer Joao Rodrigues Martins inspects his plantation
consumed by wildfire in a rural area of Caconde, Sao Paulo state, Brazil.